Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
