Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
